Off The Record 2010 Federal Election Campaign

Special Edition: Election Eve

That was the election that was

Political orthodoxy, the published polls, and gut feeling say Labor will be returned to power tomorrow. However this campaign has been anything other than orthodox. As many commentators have stated it’s a campaign between two opposition leaders, with Labor surrendering many of the benefits of incumbency in removing Kevin Rudd and installing Julia Gillard as Prime Minister in June.

Both leaders have had very few slip-ups of their own doing but have lost momentum at crucial times. Tony Abbott struggled to effectively sell his broadband policy and lost valuable momentum, but it was the leaks against Gillard from within her own Party that have probably been the most damaging moments of the campaign so far.

Both leaders failed to really cut through in their campaign launches, but Abbott missed the bigger opportunity to capitalise on the calamity of Labor’s second and third weeks. Gillard’s ‘web-health’ policy announcement during her launch speech played well to the ALP’s policy strengths, supporting her forward-looking rhetoric and highlighting a perceived weakness in her opponent.

The live debate was a dull dead heat, while the two ‘people’s forums’ in Rooty Hill and Red Hill were evenly split.

There is clearly an anti-Government swing on in Queensland and NSW, and although it is now a cliché, it is true that ultimately the campaign will be decided by the uniformity of that swing in those two States.

The Labor brand in both States is clearly damaged. In Queensland, the removal of Kevin Rudd has not played well, while Gillard was clearly taken aback by the strong cynicism in Western Sydney following her announcement of the Parramatta-Epping rail line. The ALP now probably regrets its decision to muddy the waters in the campaign between State and Federal issues in NSW.

Countering this is strong support for the Government (and the progressive side of politics) in Victoria and South Australia – partly due to the Gillard home town factor – which may see as many as four seats change hands from Liberal to Labor. WA could go the other way with Hasluck and Swan (notionally Labor) in play for the Coalition.

The Greens are on track to attract their highest level of support at a Federal election and are now favourites on the betting markets to win the seat of Melbourne. That the Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate after 1 July 2011 is the only certainty going in to tomorrow’s election.

The Coalition campaign has built some momentum in its final days but OTR still thinks Labor and Julia Gillard will fall over the line with a four to six seat majority.

The best of times…

The PM’s performances have been strong throughout the campaign so it is difficult to pinpoint one single best moment, however, Australians got to see the “real Julia” in the television programs Q&A and The 7PM Project, and she continued to build on these strong performances.

Tony Abbott’s victory at the “people’s forum” at the Rooty Hill RSL was a moment of strength for the Opposition Leader. His decision to literally meet people at their level played out well, setting the tone for his contribution to the question and answer session. While the margin of victory was close it showed that Tony Abbott could hold his own as a creditable alternative Prime Minister.

… the worst of times

Veteran journalist Laurie Oakes’ airing of inside cabinet information that Gillard had questioned a pension increase and paid parental leave marked the low point of the Government’s campaign. A second leak that she had reportedly sent a staff member to represent her at National Security Committee continued to provide an unwelcome distraction for the PM and overshadowed the Government’s campaign message for a number of crucial days.

The Coalition’s campaign launch was a lost opportunity for Abbott to continue to build momentum over the course of the campaign. The absence of any detailed policy coupled with a focus on personality was supposed to show the Coalition as a safe pair of hands. Instead it provoked questions about the Coalition’s policy strength. Tony Abbott’s admission later that he was not a “tech head” only encouraged the perception that he was not across the detail of his own policies.

Return engagements

It’s safe to say there has not been an Australian election in living memory where so many former party leaders played such a central role. Like once great actors who can’t bear to leave the stage, in 2010 Kevin Rudd, Mark Latham, Bob Hawke, John Howard, John Hewson, and even Andrew Peacock all took turns at upstaging the young ingénues who had taken their roles.

The most tragic player was clearly Mark Latham. Rarely has an ex-politician’s desperate and transparent need for relevance been so unmatched by their ability to achieve it. No doubt he’ll think he accomplished what he set out to do, shining the spotlight on what he now says is an empty and meaningless process. But Latham looked like a buffoon and a bruiser, and ended up committing the cardinal sin of being boring.

The best return engagement was John Hewson, whose appearances on the ABC’s top-rating (three words you don’t see together very often) Gruen Nation revealed a raconteur of some skill, and a pretty insightful commentator to boot. No doubt he’ll be looking for other media gigs to capitalise on his renewed fame.

It’s strange to say Kevin Rudd had a good campaign, but in an odd way he did. Media and public sympathy was only enhanced by his illness, and whatever the result tomorrow his reputation will come out unscathed: if the ALP wins, his late intervention will be seen as a key factor; if they don’t, his ousting will be.

Bob Hawke has now effectively replaced Gough Whitlam in the pantheon of Labor greats, while John Howard’s brief return cemented the affection and regard significant sections of the electorate still hold for him. The less said about Andrew Peacock’s ill-judged comments the better.

It’s been suggested the reason for all these special guest appearances was that neither the PM nor Opposition Leader had the gravitas to pull spotlight themselves. We’re hoping that in 2013 one of them has been on the stage long enough to grow into the leading role, and that there’s no longer a part for these distracting supporting players.

Kerry and Laurie’s Excellent Adventure

This campaign has been characterised by media outlets keeping their leading journalists at home rather than lose them to the road for five weeks. This may have been what led one media commentator to call the coverage “one of the most abysmal performances I have seen from the media”. We’re not sure if that’s true, but the line of questioning about “Mr Rabbit” surely marks a new level of triviality.

But despite all the tweets, Facebook updates and FM radio interviews, the last five weeks have clearly demonstrated the traditional media’s ongoing ability to lead the political debate, set the agenda, and completely derail a campaign when they want to.

Two pivotal journalists – Laurie Oakes and Kerry O’Brien – changed the fortunes of both parties in the campaign, throwing the Labor and Coalition campaigns off the rails in a way that demonstrated these Titans’ ability to own the media cycle: Oakes by his cabinet leaks and O’Brien with his questioning of Abbott on broadband. Both journalists were at the top of their game and left politicians on both sides in their wake.

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

First there were silly arguments about the format for the leaders’ debates, although what we ended up with was a forced and lifeless event. Then there was the economic debate that never was. But the most interesting new development over this campaign has clearly been the ‘people’s forums’, where Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott have been tested separately by questions without notice from voters.

In the crucial election battleground of Western Sydney, Gillard and Abbott faced a room full of swinging voters at the Rooty Hill RSL. Gillard faced a reasonably hostile audience from a pokies stool on the stage, dealing calmly with questions on the ALP factions’ involvement in Kevin Rudd’s dismissal, broken promises and bungled schemes. Abbott won the night by moving down to be amongst the people, and demonstrating his natural, folksy style with everyday Australians.

This week featured another people’s forum in another important battleground: Queensland. The forum at Brisbane Broncos Club in Red Hill used the same format as the Rooty Hill event. Both leaders positioned themselves below the podium among the people and both faced some difficult questions, Abbott on WorkChoices, broadband and election costings, Gillard on why she took away Queenslanders’ ability to determine the Prime Minister. Abbott was up first, but Gillard emerged slightly ahead according those present and media commentators.

The ABC’s Q&A debates offered viewers a different dynamic, with a mix of Labor, Liberal and swinging voters. Gillard’s polished performance was a defining moment in her campaign, producing a near perfect answer on her family status and demonstrating her sharp humour when responding to a gift of a question on Mark Latham. Abbott found the questions from the ABC’s audience more challenging, provoking a mixed response from the audience.

The people’s forums were a refreshing change from the trained political parlance practised by the press gallery and challenged the leaders to connect on a different level. We’re sure they’ll become a fixture, although the jury is still out on the need for a US-style debates commission for future campaigns.

The State(s) we’re in

The cartographer’s marks that separate the States of the Federation are often said to be accidents of history, a reminder of our colonial past that is an anachronism in our modern, borderless economy. So why are there such significant differences in the mood and temper of the state electorates? Why are those who follow Rugby League so pissed off, while those who watch AFL are so seemingly content?

Dissatisfaction with the Keneally and Bligh Governments will most likely lead to significant Labor losses in NSW and Queensland, where polling suggests they will lose four seats and eight seats respectively. Gillard has done what she can to distance herself from the NSW Government in particular. But the people of the marginal seats of Western Sydney seemingly don’t care.

The mining tax debacle and the knifing of their own PM mean the state of play in Queensland is even grimmer. The pollsters are tipping Bonner, Petrie, Leichardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn, Dickson and possibly even Brisbane will fall to the Coaltion.

The Government will do well in progressive Victoria and possibly even South Australia, but cannot afford to lose the NT seat of Solomon. If the ALP is behind when the polls close in WA, then it’s ‘so long, farewell’ to the Gillard Government as the seats of Hasluck and Swan are tipped to swing to the Coalition.

More than Facebook and email

For all the planning and strategising done by parties before a campaign, they are unpredictable, uncontrollable events with a momentum all of their own. This was supposed to be the health and economy election, so the prominence of broadband has been a surprise to many.

The issue was a late game-changer for the Government, allowing it to promote its future-focussed bona fides against the Coalition’s apparent disinterest in the technology of tomorrow. The Coalition announced it would scrap the NBN as part of its $6 billion broadband policy, but Tony Abbott’s absence from the announcement and his later stumbles on the issue made him look out of touch and out of date.

By contrast, Julia Gillard flew to Tasmania to launch the commercial start of her $43 billion NBN, and four days later used the Labor campaign launch to link the NBN with the future health of Australians through online consultations.

Moving forward with real action

No doubt a majority of TV viewers were relieved to see the broadcast blackout kicking in on Wednesday night, especially after an intense final week of negative advertising. If you are still undecided, rest assured, online and social media advertising will continue on until tomorrow, thanks to a blackout loophole.

With the 2010 Federal Election TV advertising all wrapped up and in the can, it’s time to revisit some of the highlights and lowlights:

• First round of positive ads featuring their leaders talking about their priorities – Liberal’s Action contract ad (with that rather dated “Real Action” jingle) and Labor’s Moving Forward ad (featuring some sloppy writing).
• Labor’s series of negative advertising – Tony Abbott’s record as a health minister, economic record, and tax hikes, and “Don’t risk with Tony Abbott”.
• The Coaltion’s negative advertising saw the return of “Kevin O’Lemon”, also “Same old Labor” followed by “Same old Julia”, South Park-esque ads featuring Gillard and Keneally, Another boat and Stop Labor’s carbon tax.
• Third party advertising – with the ACTU sticking with an anti-WorkChoices theme, GetUp!’s series of commercials most notably on Abbott’s record on women’s issues, and the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies’ anti-mining tax ad.
• Perhaps the ad that generated the most buzz didn’t broadcast at all – the fake Greens ad by Republic of Everyone on Gruen Nation – If you think, vote Greens generated close to 100,000 views on YouTube.

Best quotes of the campaign

Oakes: “What do you think when I say Mark Latham?”
Gillard: “Unfortunately at the moment Laurie I think Channel Nine.”
Oakes: “Well that’s a fair cop Gov.”
- The PM and Laurie Oakes, Weekend Today, 1 August

“We really are a cross-section of the community, albeit some of the more colourful sections of the community. We’re not exactly the ‘gray suits’.”
- Fiona Patten, President of the Australian Sex Party

“Bob Hawke… had a tax summit, now if we had that today, happen before people’s eyes – ‘Oh – tax summit, imagine doing that? Imagine getting people to Canberra? Oh – why would you bother talking to anybody? Why don’t get on with leading it’ – tweet, tweet, tweet and so on.”
- The PM at yesterday’s Press Club event.

“Nice to see you Mark, and I hope you enjoy your life as a journalist.”
- The PM to Mark Latham, 7 August.

“Just as the Prime Minister says, I say as well that I’m no Bill Gates here and I don’t claim to be any kind of tech head in all of this.”
- Tony Abbott on the 7:30 Report, 10 August.

“There are some things that can’t be measured.”
- The PM on Mark Latham, Q&A, 9 August.

“Wayne Swan is to surpluses what Paris Hilton is to celibacy. They remember it once existed but they’ll never see it again.”
- Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, 20 July.

The Red Chair Series, an interview with Sarah Cruickshank

Go to the Ogilvy PR YouTube channel.

Building from the ground up

Developing the core communications for the new Australian Biosecurity Intelligence Network

Issue: In February 2009, public affairs agency Parker & Partners was engaged to develop start up communications for a new Australian Government funded ‘world first’ initiative – a nationally networked framework to connect Australia’s biosecurity community.

Working from a Government investment plan and with a newly established Board and team, Parker & Partners created a message platform that describes the essence of a complex concept in simple terms to engage and secure ‘buy in’ of stakeholders for the first time. Parker & Partners developed a comprehensive three year communications strategy and implementation plan, supported by a website, collateral, expansive stakeholder database and engagement plan, media strategy and outreach, and an official launch. In addition to these foundation documents, Parker & Partners has provided the ABIN team with daily strategic counsel and advice on stakeholder engagement and issues management over the past 12 months, as well as conducting media training and preparation for a significant benchmarking research study of the biosecurity community.

Challenge: With a complex concept and stakeholders involving more than 60 agencies, researchers and operational staff across all levels of government and across the diverse sector of human, animal, plant, aquatic and wildlife health, and an extremely low level of awareness of this new initiative, the challenges were significant.

Insight: Our public affairs team’s strategic approach was based on BIO – Building, Informing and Operationalising, focussed around building a story that informs and grows the supporter base and operationalises ABIN into the everyday culture and activity of the biosecurity community.

The logo developed by our design agency reflects the interaction and flow of information between stakeholders within the biosecurity community, strength and dependability, and the integrity and professionalism of the sector.

Parker & Partners distilled the essence of ABIN into five key words that resonate with the biosecurity community: CONNECT, SHARE, USE, CREATE AND GENERATE. Those terms became the cornerstone of all ABIN communications beginning with the simple message that ABIN CONNECTS people across the biosecurity sector to SHARE, CREATE and USE data and tools to GENERATE biosecurity intelligence, and flowing through to ABINs vision and mission and all communications materials.

Campaign: On 16 March, after 13 months of groundwork, Parker & Partners executed a national launch of ABIN at a well-attended event in Parliament House with key stakeholders and the Parliamentary Secretary for Innovation and Industry, The Hon Richard Marles MP and key note speaker Mr Roger Beale AO, supported by media outreach.

Outcome: Parker & Partners has become a trusted adviser to the ABIN team. That trust attests to the quality and timeliness of our public affairs agency’s advice and client service, our professional approach and reliability, and our strategic communications and stakeholder engagement expertise.

Transparency good for government relations

One of the early initiatives of Kevin Rudd’s Government was to set up a Register of Lobbyists, an idea that was quickly copied by every state government.  The registers list the clients of government relations firms, providing a level of transparency about who is working for whom.

The registers came about following a number of controversial episodes in which lobbyists (usually ex-politicians) were given privileged access to government decision makers, were seen to have undue or improper influence on government decision making, or were awarded whopping great success fees when the government made a decision in favour of their client.

Currently the registers cover third party lobbyists (consultancies like Parker & Partners who are hired by organisations to help navigate the halls of government) but not ‘in-house’ lobbyists (individuals on the payroll with the specific task of government relations) or professional services organisations (law and accountancy firms who lobby on behalf of their clients), but this is likely to change.

Anomalies aside, moves to make the business of lobbying government more transparent should be welcomed by professional government relations organisations. The era of government relations firms providing access based on contacts (the ‘maaaate’ school of government relations) is rapidly coming to an end.

Indeed, many politicians say that organisations don’t need to hire a lobbyist to get a meeting, and most legitimate organisations with a real issue can get ministerial time. Where the modern government relations consultancy adds value is building a coherent and thought-through public affairs strategy for government engagement.

This can involve winning third party support, running a targeted media campaign, undertaking community initiatives, or flying a kite (flagging an issue to test public reaction). There’s nothing sinister about using these tactics to influence politicians – that’s why it’s called politics.

And doing it in the knowledge that the community knows who you’re working for only ensures the continuing legitimacy of government relations.

Ogilvy PR NextGen Leaders 2010 – the next peak

The talent team at Ogilvy PR recently launched its 2010 leadership program, NextGen Leaders – the next peak, a rigorous 12-month program aimed at training, developing and supporting 20 of its future leaders across its six businesses, Cannings, Howorth, Impact Employee Communications, Ogilvy PR Health, Parker & Partners and Pulse.

NextGen Leaders is designed to provide senior team members best-in-class industry training. The curriculum focuses on enhancing core technical and behavioural communication skills and training Ogilvy-specific tools, products and services across practice areas such as digital influence, insights and strategy, research and sustainability.

NextGen Leaders first launched at the beginning of 2009 with 30 senior consultants.  This year, the training will focus on creativity, senior client management and advanced business skills.

NextGen Leaders also have the responsibility to train core skills back within each of their teams and businesses. In 2010, much of the curriculum will also be used as a foundation for training rolled out via Ogilvy PR School, a dedicated program targeted at consultants from graduate to account manager levels. This is to ensure that all the training that Ogilvy PR provides for its consultants are ultimately aligned with the company’s business strategy and its core values to Learn & Grow, be One Step Ahead and work in Partnership.

Telstra Productivity Indicator 2010 Report

Australia’s productivity gap – the difference between productivity expectations and action – has widened from 29 per cent in 2009 to 34 per cent this year, according to new Telstra research.

Underlining the findings of the Government’s Intergenerational Report, the Telstra Productivity Indicator research found that improving customer service and productivity are the key priorities for Australian organisations, ranking 78 per cent and 76 per cent respectively

The Productivity Indicator also found that only 42% of decision makers measure productivity, have a target and know what that target is compared with 49% in last year’s report.

For more information please visit http://www.interactivemediarelease.com/back/productivity.

Experts Predict the Year Ahead

Parker and Partners released Trends 2010 on 11 February 2010, a snapshot of the political and policy landscape, and one or two bold predictions for the next 12 months.

The risks inherent in the Government’s media strategy, the rise and rise of Julia Gillard and the possible fate of four the state Labor governments going to the polls are all covered in Parker & Partner’s fourth annual public affairs forecast.

Trends 2010 also reads the tea leaves in key Federal policy areas like taxation, health, education, defence, and climate change, as well as the fast-evolving media landscape. As an example, Parker & Partners predicts that the proximity to the Federal election will ensure that the response to the report of the Ken Henry-led review of taxation will be more aspirational than prescriptive.

Parker & Partners is part of Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide, and was the team behind the much-discussed publication, Lobbying Kevin07.

The booklet is an invaluable resource for organisations that interact with governments, oppositions, minor parties and bureaucracies in a year when politicians will be fighting for votes and business backing.

“With five elections between now and March 2011 the political landscape has never been more interesting or more competitive,” said Sarah Cruickshank, P&P Joint Managing Director.

“As always, most of the political attention will be on Canberra, with the Rudd Government seeking its second term in Government.

“We believe the most likely timing for the Federal election will be in the spring. Although the potential for an earlier double dissolution election is still a strong possibility, should the Government’s legislative agenda continue to face roadblocks in the Senate.”

This year’s Trends includes for the first time findings from a wide-ranging poll What’s keeping Australians up at night?, conducted late last year by Ogilvy Illumination, Ogilvy Public Relations’ new dedicated research firm.

What’s keeping Australians up at night? results covered in Trends include:

• 39 per cent of respondents felt they were financially worse off than 12 months earlier, while 18 per cent actually felt they were better off;
• 29 per cent of respondents expect to be financially better off in the next 12 months, while 19 per cent thought they would be worse off in a year;
• Those over 60 are less likely to feel under financial pressure, while generations X and Y are more likely to be feeling the pinch (29 per cent compared to 39 per cent);
• Voter concern about so-called broken promises also splits along generational lines, with 67 per cent of those aged over 50 saying they are highly concerned about this issue compared to just 38 per cent of those aged under 40.

“A modern public affairs environment requires more than just access to ministers and their advisers,” said Greg Sam, P&P Joint Managing Director and Ogilvy Illumination Senior Counsel.

“Testing concepts and attitudes, researching community and stakeholder views, and having a deep understanding of how an issue is likely to play out based on proven methodologies are now must-haves for any sophisticated public affairs effort.

“The findings from What’s keeping Australians up at night? make for fascinating reading as they provide a great snapshot of community attitudes on issues respondents themselves identified as important to them and their families.

“The research has already been presented to some of Australia’s leading companies and political organisations, and we’re delighted to be able to share it more widely via Trends.”

Read the full report here.

Parker & Partners Win at 2009 Gold Standard Awards

Ogilvy PR would like to congratulate Parker & Partners for winning the Gold Standard in Government Relations at the 2009 Gold Standard Awards.  Managing Director, Sarah Cruickshank attended the ceremony on February 4 at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Hong Kong, to accept the award on behalf of the team.  Parker & Partners won the award for their outstanding government relations campaign working with Veolia Environmental Services and Australian Landfill Owners Association.

Read more about the campaign here.

Veolia Environmental Services and Australian Landfill Owners Association government relations campaign

Challenge

Organic waste in landfills takes approximately 30 years to decompose, emitting methane (a greenhouse gas significantly more potent than carbon dioxide) throughout that period. By putting a price on carbon emissions the Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme would have made current landfill customers – including ratepayers and local councils – liable for emissions produced from waste deposited as far back as 1980 (known as “legacy waste”) at a cost of millions of dollars a year.

Veolia is one of the largest landfill operators in Australia. The Government had a political mandate to act on climate change and the Minister was firm in her resistance to any changes to the CPRS that would protect business interests. Veolia Environmental Services engaged Parker & Partners to lobby the federal government for the removal of legacy waste from the CPRS legislation as well as to raise the profile of Veolia’s brand within government circles.

Insight

Parker & Partners drew on our extensive relationships with Australia’s politicians, bureaucrats and media and found most had not heard of Veolia, and had no understanding of the concept of ‘legacy waste’ or the implications of the CPRS on the waste sector.

Creative Idea

We revived the defunct industry think-tank the Barton Group to provide intellectual force and further credibility to the arguments, and we created a new waste industry group, the Australian Landfill Owners Association to lobby government on the issue and to influence media coverage.

Campaign

• Multiple, targeted government relations engagements and meetings programs;
• Detailed policy and legislative development;
• Extensive journalist briefings and the crafting, dissemination and pitching of media releases and stories;
• Stakeholder relations and coalition-building within the waste industry; and
• Industry leadership and policy consolidation through the establishment of pre-eminent waste industry peak body, the Australian Landfill Owners Association.

Outcome

In April 2009 the Federal Government announced that emissions from ‘legacy waste’ would be excluded from coverage, making landfill the only sector covered by the CPRS to successfully convince the Government to substantially modify its legislation.

To date, the waste sector is the only CPRS covered sector to successfully convince the Australian Government to substantively modify the proposed CPRS legislation. Other powerful industry lobby groups – coal, minerals, and stationary energy to name but a few – have still had no success in modifying the CPRS legislation.

In terms of broader public affairs outcomes for Veolia, by May 2009 ALOA represented 70 percent of the waste management industry in Australia and was recognised by the Australian Government as the voice of the industry. In addition Veolia’s Director of Sustainability was elected as Secretary and official spokesman for the Association.

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